Fantastic graphs are here.
As the length of unemployment lengthens, unemployment benefits expire. Workers have an incentive to find work. The graphs show that the unemployment rate is increasing which means workers are not finding employment.
Saturday, November 07, 2009
Thursday, November 05, 2009
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
Monday, November 02, 2009
Marshmellows, Mischel, and Success
A long-time reader shares these links about delayed gratification and success. The first link is from the New Yorker, DON'T The Secret of Self-Control.
The second link is to a TED Talk Video.
The link is clear that later success depends on investment in human capital now. Has anyone studied the economics of changing tastes and preferences so that we can change student behavior?
The second link is to a TED Talk Video.
The link is clear that later success depends on investment in human capital now. Has anyone studied the economics of changing tastes and preferences so that we can change student behavior?
Sunday, November 01, 2009
Characteristics of the Unemployed
This data is taken from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In every case except Asian Men, the unemployment rate was greater for men. That is, in every sub-group, men experienced a higher rate of unemployment than women. My research tells me that women take jobs that are not subject to cyclical changes. Women take accounting jobs, for example. These jobs are still needed even in a recession. Women choose professional occupations like dentistry that are independent of seasonal demand.
My advice for those wishing to be insulated from changes in consumer demand.
Marshmellow Test
A follow-up to yesterday's post is the Mashmellow Test by Walter Mischel. Thanks goes to reader Chrissy Rudd for the tip.
If success in school is a function of delayed gratification, then teachers should be willing to structure teaching to give immediate knowledge of results. Teachers should allow students to grade most of their own work, use computer assisted instruction, and use audience response systems in their lectures. Teachers should constantly monitor behavior to direct student involvement by walking around the room and giving one-minute praises.
If you are a teacher, what do you do to provide immediate and effective feedback to your students?
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Do Students Discount the Future 500%
Would you like one Gummi Bear today or five tomorrow? When I asked that question to my sixth hour class, those responding said that they preferred to have one today. Many educators site this as an example of how much young people discount the future. In this case, the present value of five Gummi Bears was one. That discounts the future 500%?
Although I don't believe students discount all future events five times, I believe that they will trade tomorrow for today. that means students won't study when they can watch television. They will spend money on a credit card at a high interest rate. Gary Becker believes that criminals will heavily discount the future when the benefits arrive today but the costs are uncertain in the future.
Ruby Payne has written much about poverty. As I remember it, her research shows that children from poverty are always concerned that an unseen catastrophy will steal their wealth. If that is true, then they would have a huge incentive to consume now when the benefits are certain.
In the Iowa Core Curriculum, we are supposed to teach savings and investing for college education. There is no doubt in my mind that education increases earnings. But how will children from poverty change their attitude toward savings when their wealth can be stolen from them?
Geography of a Recession
The NY Times has an interactive graphic here. When you roll the mouse over a county, the map shows you the unemployment rate and the one-year percentage change in the unemployment rate.
As the recession lengthens, one would expect to see labor migration from counties with high unemployment to counties with low unemployment. This is intuitive economics since there should be equibibrium in the markets.
This blog is a work in progress. I would like to see if counties like Sanilac, in Michigan, will see a decrease in unemployment from 19.1% to a lower percent as labor moves from the area. The map shows that Sanilac county, Michigan, saw an increase in +8.5 percent over the last year. I interpret this to mean that many lost jobs probably related to the manufacture and distribution of automobilies. Since this is structural unemployment, some older workers will drop out of the the labor force. Some workers will move into another occupation. Others will move to a county with better employment opportunities. All of this suggests that the unemployment rate will drop in Sanilac County, Michigan.
Other changes will occur in the long run such as the creation of new jobs and sectoral shifts away from manufacturing.
As the recession lengthens, one would expect to see labor migration from counties with high unemployment to counties with low unemployment. This is intuitive economics since there should be equibibrium in the markets.
This blog is a work in progress. I would like to see if counties like Sanilac, in Michigan, will see a decrease in unemployment from 19.1% to a lower percent as labor moves from the area. The map shows that Sanilac county, Michigan, saw an increase in +8.5 percent over the last year. I interpret this to mean that many lost jobs probably related to the manufacture and distribution of automobilies. Since this is structural unemployment, some older workers will drop out of the the labor force. Some workers will move into another occupation. Others will move to a county with better employment opportunities. All of this suggests that the unemployment rate will drop in Sanilac County, Michigan.
Other changes will occur in the long run such as the creation of new jobs and sectoral shifts away from manufacturing.
Friday, October 30, 2009
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