My wife contacted poison ivy 10 years ago that has permanently scarred her. Long after the itching has stopped and the oils have disappeared from her skin, she has changed her behavior to avoid any chance of contacting poison ivy. What if the effects of unemployment were so scarring that a worker permanently became unemployed? In my humble mind, this captures to concept of hystersis. A Washington Post article is here that contains data.
Does the economy have a memory? I think that much of unemployment comes from structural changes to the labor market. For example, suppose Rosetta Stone replaces high school Spanish teachers and these teachers are either too old to be retrained or the teachers need an very long retraining time before they can reenter the workforce. These teachers are structurally unemployed. As technology destroys old jobs more jobs like teaching will be eliminated. I see security jobs being replaced by drones and cameras and GPS chips. I see management jobs being replaced by real-time data acquisition program that are examined in Excel on desktops. I see a permanent increase in the natural rate of unemployment from 5.3% to 10%. Even when GDP picks up, I believe you'll see a jobless recovery as waste and efficiency is removed from the labor market.
I often wonder if unemployment hits sectors at different times. For example, first it was manufacturing but next it will be teaching since our schools are tied to preparing students for manufacturing jobs. But the technology sector will not be hit. It will explode. So unemployment doesn't affect everyone the same.
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