I was wondering if the alternative measures of unemployment were changing, but the official rate, U3, was staying the same. It appears that all of the rate move together. I was motivated to look at this data after reading the NYT article "Jobs Numbers Could Influence November Vote". Yet, the article makes it clear that voters vote along lines closer to public sentiment.
Studies also show that voters make their decisions based less on their personal experiences than a general sentiment — meaning news articles about the national economy this summer might be more influential than each voter’s experience, or a neighbor’s business, or a cousin’s or child’s trouble getting a job.
I will predict that Mr. Obama will be reelected simply because his rhetoric is stronger. People like his smooth articulation and elocution of delivery. But neither candidate can change the social forces that shape the economy.
No comments:
Post a Comment